study of climate change on hydrological drought

نویسندگان

کاظم نصرتی

مربی گروه مرتع و آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه شیراز سید سعید اسلامیان

دانشیار گروه آبیاری، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان افسانه شهبازی

مربی گروه محیط زیست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد خوراسگان

چکیده

daily discharge data of 12 hydrometric recording stations in atrak river basin were manipulated to calculate low flows for 7-day duration for studying hydrological drought using regional analysis method. using regression models, the low flows for 7-days duration of 10-year return period were calculated and regional low flows were estimated for 20 stations. daily data in each station used to simulate daily discharge for 50 years duration using climgen data generator. regional low flows of 10-year return period were estimated using the obtained daily data. low flow and hydrological drought conditions were, compared using zonation maps for two assumptions. the climate change decreased low flow and increased nucleus of hydrological drought increases that may have considerable effects on water management in the region.

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